The European-Ukrainian tank roulette is in full swing. The Germans declare that they will hand over the Leopard 2s, but the decision is said to depend on President Biden and the Pentagon. If the Americans hand over the M1A2, Berlin will agree that the users of German armored vehicles will do the same, and will probably decide to supply its own copies as well. And this is where the French come in.
Yesterday Senator François Bonneau of the Centrist Union asked the Minister of the Armed Forces, Sébastien Lecornu, about the supply of main battle tanks during a session of questions to the government.
“France is increasing military aid by supplying AMX-10 RC light tanks,” said Bonneau. – We welcome this gesture, but the delivery of more capable equipment: main battle tanks, missiles, anti-aircraft systems must not be further delayed in order to better protect civilians. […] Do you intend to supplement these deliveries with Leclerc tanks and anti-missile systems?
Today, Politico wrote about the possible transfer of Leclerc tanks, citing an anonymous interlocutor in the French government. A source said the topic “is complicated and has not yet been settled in Paris.”
According to Lecornu, the possible transfer of Leclercs, as well as any military equipment to Ukraine, is assessed according to three criteria. First: it has to follow the logic of the defense to control the escalation. Secondly, the transfer of arms must not undermine France’s security and defense capacity. Thirdly, it is necessary to keep in use what has already been delivered to Ukraine. The head of the ministry said that keeping the Leclercs “is a very delicate issue”.
On December 29, DGA awarded Nexter a contract to upgrade 50 more tanks to the XLR version.
(Nexter Systems)
The French land forces are to have 200 Leclercs upgraded to the XLR standard by 2030. There was information that France needed more armored cars, but this remained only in the realm of unconfirmed rumors. 200 tanks will remain for Paris from 406 delivered since the 1990s. The Zone Militaire service points out that all tanks beyond this number are not quite suitable for combat, as they have been cannibalized to keep the others in line.
So where would the French get tanks for the Ukrainians, and how quickly (if at all) would they be able to get them ready? There is also a doubt that does not directly concern Kiev, but affects the quality of training of French armored personnel. The average crew spends only fifty-four hours a year at the training ground, while the target set by the Military Programming Act for 2019-2025 is 115 hours.
Perhaps French declarations or the actual decision to transfer tanks (which is less likely, but not impossible) will make Germany finally unlock Leopard 2s for Ukraine. Countries such as Poland or Finland are waiting for this decision, and perhaps it will trigger a domino effect and the vast majority of German tank user countries will allocate a certain part of them, which will allow the creation of several battalions.
A pair of Leclerc tanks from the 1st Chasseur Regiment during the National Day parade.
(Ministère des Armées)
The pressure on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, already high, increased after the British decision to send Challenger 2 tanks to our eastern neighbor. Information about the French readiness to transfer MBTs appeared two days before the meeting of the Contact Group for the Defense of Ukraine.
The idea of bringing Armée de Terre glory to the Ukrainian ground forces is not new. It was first presented in a column published in September last year by Pierre Haroche in the daily Le Monde.
Subsequently, the French ambassador to Ukraine, Étienne de Poncins, confirmed Kyiv’s interest in Leclercs during a speech at the National Assembly on November 9. Just over a month later, during a visit to Paris, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that the Ukrainians would be “very grateful” if France supplied them with these tanks. It now seems closer than ever, but is it?
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U.S. Army / Spc. Craig Carter
