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    Bombs in the Tiau River – what happened on the border of Myanmar and India?

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    On January 10-11, the Myanmar air force carried out strikes near the Indian border against the forces of the Chinese National Front (CNF), one of the groups opposing the country’s ruling junta. During the airstrikes, two bombs fell on the Indian side. The events that followed are an interesting example of an information war in which Pakistani sympathizers were also involved.

    Four aircraft were to participate in the airstrikes on January 10. The target of the attacks was the CNF Camp Victoria base. Five partisans were to die: three men and two women. Just then, two bombs fell on the Indian side of the border, but they hit the bed of the Tiau River. The only damage reportedly was the windshield of the local driver’s truck, which was shattered by the blast blast. The video allegedly documenting this damage was posted by the Chin Human Rights Watch group and is impossible to verify.

    A video has also appeared online to document the attack carried out on the Indian side of the border by local residents. In this case, the OSINT team managed to geolocate the scene and confirm the explosions in India.

    Another raid conducted on 11 January. This time, two planes participated in it, which dropped at least two bombs. The target was Camp Victoria again, but this time the bombs fell on the hospital there.

    But let’s go back to the events of January 10. Reports of violations of Indian airspace quickly appeared on the web, eagerly spread by the Myanmar opposition. The planes were to penetrate nine kilometers deep into India. The silence of New Delhi added to the atmosphere. India’s foreign ministry denied the allegations of airspace violations until January 19.

    However, this is not the end of speculation and guesswork. A few days before the air strikes, a meeting of Indian communities and communes along the border was to take place; its topic was preparing to receive refugees from Myanmar. This suggests that Naypyidaw informed New Delhi of their plans. Some sources even claim that India provided the junta with intelligence to carry out the airstrikes.

    Indo-Myanmar cooperation is nothing new. New Delhi supports the military who seized power in the February 1, 2021 coup. The calculation is simple: if India turns its back on the junta, China will gain a dominant position in Myanmar. In 2021, there were reports of alleged support of Chinese paramilitary formations in suppressing protests against the junta. Such a game in the triangle New Delhi – Naypyidaw – Beijing has been going on for years. New Delhi supports the country’s military rulers, who turn a blind eye when Indian forces attack separatist groups from north-east India taking refuge in Myanmar.

    However, publicizing the alleged violation of Indian airspace was not intended to divide India and Myanmar. It was more about publicizing the case and success was achieved here. Articles appeared in the Western media about the deliveries of components for the Myanmar defense industry by companies from India, but also from Japan and the USA. There was also the idea of ​​establishing a no-fly zone over Myanmar, similar to those in Bosnia and Iraq in the 1990s. Such a solution, regardless of the extremely low probability of implementation, would deprive the junta of one of its greatest assets in the fight against the opposition.

    What dropped the bombs?

    Of course, there was also the question of what aircraft were used in the raids. Here, Pakistani social media accounts take the stage spreading the version that they were Sino-Pakistani JF-17s. It did not take long for Indian Internet users to react. The use (or not) of the JF-17 has become a matter of national pride on the online battlefield.

    Of course, video recordings would solve the case, but they have not surfaced on the web so far. Importantly, the first CNF reports mentioned the Su-30, the first two fighters of this type were accepted into service on December 15 last year. Later, the MiG-i-29 began to appear more and more often in speculation. They are supported by the fact that these machines are most often used by the Myanmar air force to attack ground targets. Of course, other planes used by the Tatmadaw may come into play: Yak-130, Chengdu F-7 or Nanchangi A-5.

    Due to the decades-long civil war intensified after the recent military coup d’état, Myanmar’s air force is constantly involved in combat operations and sometimes intrudes into the airspace of neighboring countries. In June 2022, a MiG-29 made several circles over villages in Thailand’s Phop Phra District. The machine was supporting forces fighting near the border. A pair of F-16s were sent to intercept it, but by the time they arrived, the MiG-29 had returned over its territory.

    The March 2015 incident was much more serious. The Myanmar Air Force mistakenly bombed a sugar cane field on the outskirts of Linciang, China. Five people died and eight were injured. Beijing summoned Myanmar’s ambassador for clarification, and the People’s Liberation Army of China sent a flock of fighter jets over the border and intensified patrols in the area. Initially, Naypyidaw pleaded not guilty and blamed the attack on guerrillas from the ethnic Chinese minority of Kogang. However, the pressure from Beijing turned out to be strong. The Joint Investigation Commission found the fault of the Myanmar Air Force. The then junta had to resign and pay compensation to the families of the victims.

    See also: The first landing of the IL-76 at the Progriess polar station

    M Redzi Desa, GNU Free Documentation License Version 1.2

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